Monday, November 7, 2016

Early Results from NH

Hillary wins Dixville Notch, NH, 4-2 over Trump! (Sanders 1, Romney 1)
Hillary wins Hart's Location, NH, 17-14 over Trump! (Johnson 3, Sanders 2, Kasich/Sanders 1)
Trump trounces Hillary in Millsfield, NH, 16-4! (Sanders 1)

That puts NH currently running at Trump 48% Clinton 38%, Sanders 6%, Johnson 5%, Romney 2%.
Protest votes are spoiling the election for Hillary!!!!

(These three NH towns have midnight voting and are allowed to close and count the results after 100% of registered voters have cast their vote. One can only imagine the peer pressure if someone decided not to vote this year....)

Swing State Predictions

My analysis of the key states that pundits are talking about. Anyone that I'm missing that you're curious about? Let me know in the comments.



That puts Clinton at a solid 317 EV with a good shot at 347.


As a side note, I didn't have a lot of info to work with. Less than half what I saw 4 and 8 years ago, and almost all of it from universities and other high-variance pollsters. Big names like ORG, Fox, and Survey USA almost completely stopped polling more than a month ago, and many other reliable pollsters are totally absent this time around. Curious....