Western Europe is mostly holding steady. Germany posted a phenomenal 0.1% growth in active cases today, but I suspect that is a blip of noise, like France's 3% yesterday or Switzerland's -3% a few days ago. It's a great sign when it can get that low, however, even from a random undercount. Looking to some of the other countries of concern that we raised, Turkey's reported numbers are stabilizing somewhat, suggesting that the sudden surge was a result of under-reporting catching up. Iran hasn't changed.
The story in the US is looking a little better today. The national growth rate dropped to 14% today, marking three straight days under 20%. For a change, it isn't just NY and a few states driving the improvement- across the nation, growth rates were better than they were yesterday, showing that the message is starting to get through. To underscore that, KS, MD, NC, and VA all enacted statewide stay-at-home orders today. That makes a total of 22 states that have enacted stay-at-home orders in the past 6 days, which is the earliest we would expect to see results. While we are still a long way from a peak, Americans are getting smarter and buying some time.
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