Europe Improves, Focus on Iran and Turkey

As a whole, western Europe continues to see a slow, steady decrease in the rate of infection. Italy and Spain, two of the most active countries, saw significant decreases to 5% and 7%, respectively. Switzerland jumped back up to 10% growth in active cases, but that gives them a 7% growth over the past to days, which is very admirable.

There are two more countries to keep an eye on as well, that may be flying under the radar right now. First, Turkey has seen incredible growth in confirmed cases over the past three days, exceeding 50% daily growth. This may be an artifact of reporting, since Erdogan's government keeps a tight grip on the flow of information. However, this is a very scary trend for even a short time. Given the country's critical strategic location, could have dramatic implications for many other countries in the region.

The other country of concern is Iran, another country with dubious reporting quality. Early on in the pandemic, Iran was front and center as their case numbers jumped way ahead of others. After awhile, the Iranian government seemed to get things under some semblance of control, reaching daily rates under 5%. However, reports out of Iran are painting a dire picture more recently, with reports of panic and chaos. Rumored remedies have driven a hysteria for strong alcohol, in a country that outlaws drinking. The alcohol that has hit the black markets is often tainted with toxic ethanol and bleach or other chemicals, leading to horrible cases of blindness and death. Some regions even claim that they are seeing more deaths from alcohol related poisoning than from COVID-19. Against the backdrop of this breakdown, new cases are surging again, and the exponential curve has re-established at 14% per day and growing.

The United States continues to see the rate of active cases drop to 18%, largely due to NY and a few other highly active states like CA, WA, and IL. NJ still hasn't been able to bring its new cases under control, and unless their shelter-in-place rules can start yielding results soon, they will have more cases than NY in 10 days. Over the next four days, we can expect MA to pass MI and CA.