Prognostication and Prophecy for Mini Tuesday

A number of people have written to ask me about my predictions for today. I was going to sit this one out (for very good reasons), but I will cave to peer pressure and at least tell everyone why my best guesses are little more than casting runes.

The polls are so wrong, so often, and getting worse. Plus, no one is bothering to poll the nation, so I have no 'norm' signal to work from. Add in republican heads exploding the number of open primaries, well...

Here are the five approaches I have been looking at, including how well they have done this year. (Note: when multiple models explode on the launch pad, you have a phenomenon that is technically referred to as @%$#!)

Approach 1: Model the polls as noisy observations, each with their own bias and variance. 

Accuracy to date: Piss poor.

Computer output for Mar 15: You're lying to me. There's no way that all of those polls are coming from those pollsters, or from those races.

Approach 2: Model the whole nation using national and regional polls to treat each state as a local deviation from a norm. 

Accuracy to date: Roughly accurate, but highly uncertain.

Computer output for Mar 15: [An error 0xc0000100F has occurred transferring execution. If the problem persists, please contact your election administrator.]

Approach 3: Pick the largest outlier polls, and use momentum to decide whether you use the largest or smallest spread for the apparent leader.

Accuracy to date: Fairly decent. Which is kind of scary.

Computer output for Mar 15:

   Florida: Trump >25 (or Trump <6)

   Illinois: Trump <4 (or Trump >13)

   Missouri: No data available

   North Carolina: Trump <6 (or Trump >20)

   Ohio: Kasich >6 (or Trump >6)

Approach 4: Determine historical correlations between state results, and use exit polls and actual results from states that have already voted to predict.

Accuracy to date: Fairly good for Super Tuesday. Not a lot of data for previous states.

Computer output for Mar 15:

   Florida: No one votes like Florida. Not even a little bit.

   Illinois: None of the good correlating states have voted yet

   Missouri: Trump or Cruz by <10 (Based on states like MN, OK, TN, KS)

   North Carolina: Trump +8-14 (Difficult, since it normally votes so late, but it reflects nearby southern states)

   Ohio: They're weird. Anyone they kind of resemble hasn't voted yet. Maybe Kasich +2 (based on a bunch of weak correlations on the county level)

Approach 5: Use a Tarot deck

Accuracy to date: No worse than celebrity "statisticians" and pundits

Computer output for Mar 15:
   Florida: Justice [Justice in your future indicates that you will examine your past, and how the actions of your past have brought you to your present. In doing this, you will realize how what you do right now will influence who you become in the future.]   Illinois: Seven of Cups [Flights of fancy and daydreaming are indicated by the Seven of Cups. In the picture we see the many visions of happiness that the character sees in the cups, but they are all unrealistic goals at this time.]   Missouri: The Page of Swords [Symbolizing changing circumstances, unpredictable behaviors, and wavering opinions at the root of the situation. Flexibility and adaptability are key.]

   North Carolina: The Fool [The Fool indicates that the root of your issue lies in a time when you needed to look at your situation with optimism. You had to make a leap of faith, taking only the baggage that benefited you, with the ultimate trust that you would make it alright. You went beyond your boundaries, and worked past your fears. From this experience, you learned to believe that anything is possible.]

   Ohio: The Star [The Star in represents your hopes and dreams. This may indicate the moment that you realized what you wanted to become, or it may remind you of dreams you used to believe could be your future someday.]