Momentum

Trump Winning the Racist Endorsements
Trump continues to earn the backing of the most racist and xenophobic political figures out there. After scoring big wins from Liberty University's Jerry Falwell Jr. and Maine's controversial governor Paul Le Page, Trump has now scored back-to-back "wins" of KKK leader and former presidential candidate David Duke and the French equivalent and former leader of the National Front Jean-Marie Le Pen. It is considered unusual for foreign politicians to get involved in American elections, so the last one is a bit of a coup.

Super Tuesday Updates
Several new polls have come out for Super Tuesday races, and most of them are basically in line with the estimates I gave in the last post. However, this is an election where seeing polls swinging 10% in both directions is considered normal variation. There are some swings in both directions, but there's nothing that surprises me. Of course, this is an election where refined polls and the eventual results only bear a superficial resemblance to each other, so I'm just reporting, not predicting.

Clinton Beats the Spread in South Carolina
Hillary Clinton won decisively in the South Carolina primary yesterday. This win, by itself, should not be news even worth mentioning. Every poll and gut check said that a Clinton loss there would be virtually impossible. What is big news, is that Clinton won by 73.5% to 26%, creating a huge margin that is more than double the spread that was expected. Exit polls show that she won almost every group across age, race, gender and income, leaving Sanders only his stereotypical base of 18-24 year olds and white males. Minorities turned out in record numbers to support her. In Sander's own words "We got decimated." This indicates that the entire South is likely out of play for Sanders, with delegate margins even worse than his campaign was planning for. While it is too early to call this one event "The End of Bernie" (which, yes, many political commentators are wont to do), he will have to beat the current margins on Super Tuesday, or drastically change his strategy. We have two days before we find out.