Republican Primary Support Stagnates and Surges
A very interesting thing is happening in the Republican presidential primary. On one hand, Trump and Carson, the two front-runners have largely stalled in the polls. Carson saw a brief bump in the polls at the end of October, only to return to his late September/early October numbers in the most recent polls. An amalgamation of polls indicates that from Oct 1 to Oct 27, Carson rose approximately 7 points, before dropping that same 7 points from Oct 27 to Nov 15. Trump has held very steady since August 20. While trends are much easier to estimate than absolute percentages, all indications are that these two are sitting at 26.5% for Trump and 20% for Carson.
Further down the list, however, things are starting to change. Cruz and Rubio are both seeing significant steady momentum since October 1. Estimating using six pollsters, Cruz has gained 3.5% and Rubio has jumped 4.5%. While this may not seem like a lot, it is by far the largest momentum we have seen for anyone (other than Trump and Carson) since July. Also, this puts them both in the 12-14% range, which means that (a) 4% is a lot to their campaigns and (b) they are now posing credible challenges to Carson.
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