Democratic Primary Update

Democratic Debate: More Than Just Business, Yet Still Business As Usual
The Democrats took to the stage Saturday night to hold their second debate. The event was filled with facts, policy, and positions in response to the moderators sometimes pointed questions. Many of the facts provided were even true and relevant. In other words, nothing at all like the Republican debates. The only way that the two parties' debates could be more different is if the gaggle of GOP actually started throwing things (or knifing each other, or brandishing randomly concealed hand guns).

In response to the attacks in Paris on Friday, the first half hour of the debate was devoted to foreign policy, before continuing with the regularly scheduled questions on the economy. All three candidates (yes, Martin O'Malley is still in the race) provided solid reiterations of their stated positions and reasoning. This provides a great introduction to the candidates for anyone who didn't know what each of them stood for, but didn't provide any shockers or revelations, either in terms of domestic or foreign policy.

And the Winner Is... [insert your candidate here]
Immediately after the debates, various news organizations attempted to declare a "winner," whatever that means. The reports from various "experts" were a little mixed, but I think they were best summed up by CBS News. Immediately after the debate, they assembled a representative panel of Democrats and independents that they thought were likely to vote. 51% of this panel declared Clinton the winner, versus 28% who chose Sanders, and 7% for O'Malley. Coincidentally, CBS News just released a poll (conducted Nov 6-10) which found Clinton going into the debates with the lead of 52%, with Sanders at 33% and O'Malley at 5%, which is very similar to what they got last month. So, ignoring the potential problems with political polls, one might safely assume that after hearing the same arguments on the same topics, primary voters are declaring the same candidate as both their favorite, and as the winner.

Pragmatically speaking, the winner of any event (debates, campaign events, meet and greets, SNL skits - whatever) is the candidate whose number of supporters grows as a result. So, until we see the new polls at the end of the week, it's impossible to tell who won. My prediction, however, based on early reactions, is a stalemate that failed to change anyone's minds.

Which is a strategic victory for Hillary.

Clinton is Way in the Lead
Meanwhile, in the poll that really matters, Clinton is way in the lead. A recent poll of Democratic super-delegates finds that 359 of the 710 are publicly supporting Clinton, with 343 unwilling to endorse at this point. These super-delegates are individuals who (by virtue of their position within the party) get a vote at the convention, unbound to popular opinion. In a somewhat un-democratic process, these super-delegates represent 15% of total delegates to the convention. So, three months before the first caucus or primary allows mere mortals to vote, Clinton is already 15% of the way to getting the nomination (possibly even 28% of the way, if the uncommitted super-delegates are privately split the same way). After being out-flanked by Obama in the primary, Clinton is laser-focused on collecting the all-important delegates, playing the game by the rules that are written, instead of the "popular vote" that everyone tends to think of.

As for what is happening in the GOP Circus of 2016, well... I'll keep you posted.